They think it's all over... it isn't yet

I don't think anyone one in the Labour camp would have predicted this a year ago. However, despite having handled the deepest recession since the 1930s, despite being in office for thirteen years, despite the Conservatives believing they had an easy ride into No. 10, the new YouGov/Sunday Times poll predicts Labour will win the election being a few seats short of a majority, with the Conservatives at 37% and Labour at 35%.

Of course, it is wrong to base all calculations on a single poll, but there has been a clear trend of the gap between Labour and the Conservatives narrowing since January, when the poll lead was around the 10% mark, through to early February, when the margin had been reduced to 6%, and now to 2%. What could be the reason for this dramatic fall in Conservative support?

A week ago, while launching the general election campaign, Gordon Brown asked voters to take a hard look at the Conservatives and another look at Labour. Perhaps the latest poll is an indication that people do not like Conservative ideas and feel that despite a number mistakes in the last thirteen years of Labour governance, it would still be preferable to a Conservative government. There are those who can still remember the Thatcher and Major years, and would not like to go back.

The Conservatives are promising tax cuts, and also to reduce the deficit. However, in order to pay for this there would be have to be tax rises elsewhere and a big sledgehammer would be thrown over our public services. The fact that David Cameron has have a poster saying he will not cut the NHS, suggests the more likely he will.

What many people do not realise is that despite the United Kingdom emerging out of recession later than most other countries, the British government played an important role in revitalising the world economy. It was Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling's plan to inject £75 billion into the British economy that triggered the stimulus in the United States, which has saved millions of American jobs. If Britain did not act, and action not taken so fast, the world could have gone into a deeper recession.

Another reason for Labour's resurgence in the polls could be due to unfounded political attacks on Gordon Brown. Andrew Rawnsley's book "The End of the Party" alleges that Gordon Brown was bullying his staff. Not only are these allegations completely unfounded and a work of fiction, it is an attack at Gordon Brown which the people do not want leading to a general election. It is clear why Rawnsley is making such a fuss about this, he wants to make himself a lot of money and increase his book sales. However, the people are now tired of this and as Peter Mandelson says, to be angry at times shows that the Prime Minister cares about his job, and cares about the course where Britain is heading. At a time of economic recession, surely one wouldn't want a Prime Minister who isn't alarmed by the fact that stocks have fallen 10% in one day?

Therefore, there are a number of reasons why Labour would be rallying in the polls and could yet win a fourth term. The people have decided to take a hard look at the Conservatives, and they don't like what they see. While they also have reservations about Labour, they will still prefer if Labour would stay in power. The Conservatives' sums do not add up, and in order to make most of their promises would have to cut a number of frontline services. The people are also tired of political attacks and accusations, and feel that Gordon Brown has been portrayed unfairly by the media, and find that Gordon Brown is in fact a better leader and more qualified than David Cameron.

Watch this space and get ready for a Labour poll lead.

Don't underestimate the Labour Party

War in Iraq and Afghanistan, Economic Recession, MPs Expenses, 13 Years in Office - just a few things that has caused a number of people to lose faith in the Labour Party, and led many to believe the Labour Party will lose the next election to the Conservatives, leaving David Cameron riding his bike to No. 10 like a knight in shining armour.

But not so fast - Recently polls have suggested that the gap between the Conservatives and Labour has been closing. David Cameron's airbrushed ad campaign has backfired spectacularly. There has been controversy regarding Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party, Lord Ashcroft's tax status.

While the Conservative Party generally have more funds to fight elections, the Labour Party have always succeeded in getting people together to campaign on the doorstep. On Saturday, I went on my first canvass in Ipswich with local councillors and activists and despite the weather, turnout was better than expected. Initially I was seeing at how the experienced campaigners were doing it, and soon I managed to canvass my first voter, and a Labour supporter to boot. As I was going around, I realised why Labour still had a chance in the election, there were still many Labour voters, and although we lost a couple here and there, it was still uplifiting to see so many people supporting the party. Those who were unsure, we were able to say to them that while there were obviously failures, there were still many successes during our 13 year term as the majority party - Sure Start, Free Bus Pass, Child Benefit, investment in the NHS, and others. Even those who did not support us acknowledged our successes, and some said that although we were the better party "Some people just want change".

Nevertheless, it was still good to see that no matter what happens, this Labour government has managed to make things better for a number of people. While change is clearly needed, we can learn from our failures, and build on our successes, and change for the better. On the other hand, David Cameron's Tory party have few policies, and most of the ones they do have lead the country in the wrong direction. Tory change may be change, but it will be change for the worse, change to cut taxes for the rich and the way they will pay for this is to cut funding for social services. Is this the change we want? I believe that all of us who believes in a fairer and more equal society should send this simple message to David Cameron - "Thanks, but no thanks."

What he really means

How Ukraine's 2010 election could affect Europe

As campaigning steps up in preparation for the British General Election later this year, few people will be aware that an election has just taken place that may have more of an affect on European politics than the British one. On February 7, Ukraine held a run-off election to determine whether the pro-Russian Victor Yanukovych or the pro-Western Yulia Tymoshenko would become the country's next President.

Victor Yanukovych, a former Prime Minister, had been declared the winner of the 2004 election. However, after accusations of fraud, Victor Yushchenko (his main opponent) staged the pro-Western "October Revolution" to secure power, with Yulia Tymoshenko keeping the people on the streets with inspiring speeches for weeks. Yushchenko became President and appointed Tymoshenko as Prime Minister. However, the two soon fell out but despite having been dismissed in 2005, Tymoshenko returned to her post in late 2007.

Yushchenko had sought a second term in 2010, but had been defeated in the first round on January 17, having accumulated little more than 6% of the vote, more than an indication that the Orange Revolution had failed and Yushchenko had failed to deal with the country's poor economic situation, though Yushchenko blames Tymoshenko for this. Yanukovych won the first round convincingly, with 35% of the vote, 10% ahead of Tymoshenko. And with 99% of votes counted in the second round, Yanukovych has been reported to be the victor in the election, but Tymoshenko fails to answer Yanukovych's calls to concede, citing allegations of fraud.

A couple of days later, it is still unclear who is to be the next President of Ukraine. Tymoshenko refuses to bow down to pressure to concede, and it is not inconceivable that with enough support, Tymoshenko can manage to stage a second revolution.

If Yanukovych is indeed confirmed to be the next President, Ukraine's foreign policy would move closer in line to that of Russia's, which may have implications for Ukraine's sovereignity. On the other hand, Tymoshenko promised that if she were to become the President, she would make attempts for Ukraine to join the European Union and NATO, therefore providing the country with security and economic benefits. The choice Ukraine has is a backward step moving back in to the clutches of the Kremlin, or a step forward where Ukraine embraces the Western world.