How Ukraine's 2010 election could affect Europe

As campaigning steps up in preparation for the British General Election later this year, few people will be aware that an election has just taken place that may have more of an affect on European politics than the British one. On February 7, Ukraine held a run-off election to determine whether the pro-Russian Victor Yanukovych or the pro-Western Yulia Tymoshenko would become the country's next President.

Victor Yanukovych, a former Prime Minister, had been declared the winner of the 2004 election. However, after accusations of fraud, Victor Yushchenko (his main opponent) staged the pro-Western "October Revolution" to secure power, with Yulia Tymoshenko keeping the people on the streets with inspiring speeches for weeks. Yushchenko became President and appointed Tymoshenko as Prime Minister. However, the two soon fell out but despite having been dismissed in 2005, Tymoshenko returned to her post in late 2007.

Yushchenko had sought a second term in 2010, but had been defeated in the first round on January 17, having accumulated little more than 6% of the vote, more than an indication that the Orange Revolution had failed and Yushchenko had failed to deal with the country's poor economic situation, though Yushchenko blames Tymoshenko for this. Yanukovych won the first round convincingly, with 35% of the vote, 10% ahead of Tymoshenko. And with 99% of votes counted in the second round, Yanukovych has been reported to be the victor in the election, but Tymoshenko fails to answer Yanukovych's calls to concede, citing allegations of fraud.

A couple of days later, it is still unclear who is to be the next President of Ukraine. Tymoshenko refuses to bow down to pressure to concede, and it is not inconceivable that with enough support, Tymoshenko can manage to stage a second revolution.

If Yanukovych is indeed confirmed to be the next President, Ukraine's foreign policy would move closer in line to that of Russia's, which may have implications for Ukraine's sovereignity. On the other hand, Tymoshenko promised that if she were to become the President, she would make attempts for Ukraine to join the European Union and NATO, therefore providing the country with security and economic benefits. The choice Ukraine has is a backward step moving back in to the clutches of the Kremlin, or a step forward where Ukraine embraces the Western world.